PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN PENJUALAN MAINAN ANAK

Abstract

Kids toys will never die, but as a shop owner must be observant to see market share soas not to suffer losses, there will be a loss if the rotation of goods is not balanced between thestock of goods with the amount of goods sold. This not only requires reliability and instinct. Itwill be very helpful for shopkeepers if forecasting is done in buying goods for stock, so the stockwill not accumulate much but only buy a few items whose number of turn over is not muchotherwise it will buy lots of goods whose turnover is very fast and many. Forecasting method usedis Single Moving Average by taking orange puzzle sales data from January 2018 to June 2019with a value of 6,7,8 and 9 which will be used as calculation data in the SMA method, determinethe results of historical data processing using the SMA method, calculate errors from the resultsof predictions using the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Square Error) and MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) methods, the final results are obtained after going through theprocess of calculating predictions and calculating errors. The results of this study obtained avalue of movement 9 which has good accuracy (the smallest error rate). Namely MAD of 4.23457,MAPE of 4.2638 and MSE 30.166 with the results of forecasting 96 pcs of orange puzzle sales inJuly 2019.Keywords—Kids Toys, Forecasting, SMA, MAD, MSE, MAPE